This is an old revision of the document!
Table of Contents
META: Read CarbonBrief.org: Election 2019: What the manifestos say on energy and climate change instead of this page - thankfully it's now very out-of-date.
The Climate Crisis
This page started as thinking-out-loud on tackling the Climate Crisis (orignal notes below). There is now enough press coverage for everyone to know that we must go carbon neutral, the only question left is when. Here are the options:
- ZC2025: This is the Extinction Rebellion goal - there is an outline plan in Green New Deal: policies to stop climate damage by 2025.
- ZC2030: This is the Green Party goal - the policies may be found here. It is also a date used in the excellent series of Zero Carbon Britain research reports and is the offical policy of Norway.
- ZC2040: This is the Labour Party goal, with 77% reduction in energy emissions compared to 2010 vy 2030.
- ZC2045: This is the Liberal Democrats proposed goal - it is written up as Tackling the Climate Emergency for their Autumn Conference 2019.
- ZC2050: This is the date used by the IPCC 1.5°C, the UK Green New Deal and the US Green New Deal- “risks to health, livelihoods, food security, water supply, human security, and economic growth are projected” with a 33% chance of being ‘catastrophic’.
Zero Carbon Sooner discusses target dates in detail. None of the options are easy. Early dates imply more short-term discomfort and fewer people dying in the long term. Our main enemy is inaction, we've known about the problem for many decades, yet if we continue to consume as we are doing we will exhaust our 1.5°C budget and far more severe consequences will be inevitable.
[some rough notes started in 2018]
Climate change is real
and here's a link for all those people that say we've always had climate cycles and this one is natural: https://xkcd.com/1732
Why do we have a problem?
- There are now about 7.7 billion people (predictions are for 11 billion in 2100 but we need to act way before that).
- On average we consume 1.7 times the earth's carrying capacity and it gets worse year on year.
- The rich countries are the worst offenders and have a duty to clean up their historic emissions.
We all love the Thneeds from the Truffala trees.
Our economic system is broken w.r.t. Climate Change
This needs updating, I've just learned of https://qz.com/1192753/a-carbon-tax-killed-coal-in-the-uk-natural-gas-is-next/ and 'no deal' plans https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/carbon-emmisions-tax/carbon-emmisions-tax and https://www.power-technology.com/features/carbon-capture-cost/
- The true cost of emissions aren't borne by the extractor or consumer
I imply that carbon neutal means zero growth and we don't have an economic system that copes well with zero growth
Our political system is broken w.r.t Climate Change
- Individuals vote for personal interests within the time scale of elections
- Short term individual, constituency and country interests are best served by exploitation of others
- Climate change is a global problem, there is no World Government to look after global issues
- Politicians aren't trusted, we have Fake News and Project Fear
It's like being in a car driving towards a brick wall. We won't hit it in the lifetime of the current government or the next and acceleration wins votes.
We need to act but have failed to do so
- Slow burn? The long road to a zero-emissions UK UK emissions are starting to decrease , but that's because we've gone for the low hanging fruit first (coal fired power stations), there's a long way to go and the rest isn't as easy.
It is likely that global dimming has happened, that is the pollution we have teased into the air has reflected more sunlight than is natural. When we clean up our pollution, as we must, then we get more sun and so more warming without releasing more CO2. Roughly our warming would and will be twice as much without the associated pollution
Personal expenditure is a reasonable proxy for damage done
What we spend goes on raw materials (finite), fuel (emissions) and people (who spend on raw materials and fuel).
Over the last few decades we've got used to “a higher standard of living” and this has come at the cost of emissions and global heating. We have to some how rewind a couple of decades to before “low cost airlines” for holiday travel as they are only low cost because we've ignored their emissions. Lots of our food comes with high emissions as well, meat is often singled out but we use fuel to heat greenhouses to give us year-round vegetables as well and fly avocados half way around the world. We also have a use-one “low cost” fashion industry. All of this has to go if we want the human race to be sustainable.
Saying that we must consume less is an unpopular message, one way of wrapping it up is to say that we must work a nine hour week and then leave it to the reader to work out that means living on only a quarter of present income.
Todo: add a section on the analysis of expenditure. You emit between 1 and 2 kgCO2e/£ whatever you spend on, the important thing is not what you buy but how much you buy.
Related, in transport it's not how you travel (assuming it's powered) but how far you travel https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn17260-train-can-be-worse-for-climate-than-plane/
Action is hard
This is a complex problem that will radically change peoples lives:
- Zero emissions is radically different than today - use carbon calculator to see your emissions and how hard it would be for you to get to 2 metric tons per year.
We need a plan that is acceptable to all:
- Most people think that they are hard done by already, so won't take more hardship
- Some pain now is better than wars later
There is no quick fix
For a comprehensive review of all possible fixes see drawdown.org.
For our current mix of renewables and fossil fuels see G.B. National Grid Status
Climate geoengineering isn't the answer
Renewables aren't the answer:
- We are not moving fast enough in switching to renewable energy
- Our demand for energy is growing, it has to stop growing or shrink as all renewables emit some CO2 in construction
- Renewables only work when the wind blows/sun shines - that means we need a massive energy store
Planting trees isn't the complete answer:
- You can't combat ever increasing emmisions with a finite amount of land: Radical reforestation of UK farmland would only buy us 12 years of emissions
- We are a long way from bioenginering superplants
- Tree planting drones could help but we still only have a finite amount of land
- To make a real difference a million trees are useless,a billion trees are useless, we need another trillion trees.
Fundamentally we have to get to net zero emissions. Trees and the oceans can mop up a small fraction, unless we get to very near zero we'll kill them off as well.
If you fancy having a go at setting an energy policy, have a look at the DECC calculator.
TODO: Rewrite this to include Zero Carbon Britain: Rethinking the Future and Zero Carbon Britain: Making it Happen. https://www.ethicalconsumer.org/energy/short-guide-carbon-offsets
Entrepreneurial ideas
- Green bank account: The idea is to make individuals responsible for their actitions. All expenditure would be auto-classsifed and C02e calculated - maybe even automatic debits to certified CO2 sinks.
- Push for “don't spend now” (invest in green/donate to reduce inequality/save for the mess to come)
- Push for extending GAYE to donations to verified Climate Change organisations
On average a UK person is responsible for 10 tonnes CO2e each, we have to get that down to under 2 tonnes. Put simply, we all have to aim to consume only 20% of what we currently do, so cutting out meat and flying is the really easy bit - the rest will be much harder.
Don't believe that it will be easy to halt global warming, (e.g. 100 solutions to reverse global warming) - not only have we made no progress in reducing emissions so far, we are continually making things worse. We've failed so far and don't even have a good plan for efficient action before it's too late. Go back to this calculator and see if you can personally hit the target.
If you think I've been overly pessimistic, remember that halting global warming is the easy problem. Getting to carbon neutrality does nothing about the poisons we've already released. The warming that has already happened could release a lot more greenhouse gasses from melting tundra, the loss of the Arctic ice cap will result in more warming because snow reflects sunlight well, and the carbon dioxide that has entered our oceans is causing acidification and killing coral reefs. Even if we could go way beyond carbon neutrality to a magical zero emissions we have to tackle the significant problems we've already created. These could easily add as much global warming as we've already seen (e.g https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/cleaning-up-air-pollution-may-strengthen-global-warming/) so it could well be too late to avoid catastrophe - that doesn't mean we shouldn't act now.
The popular message is that climate change is a very serious threat, but there are easy things we can do now to avoid the terrible consequences (e.g. we'd all be okay if we stopped eating meat). I don't think that that the easy things are enough, we can't expect to maintain our standard of living as the risk of hitting an unforseen tipping point is so high we need drastic action now.
Climate change and global inequality
https://medium.com/insurge-intelligence/escaping-extinction-through-paradigm-shift-83e33d4cb548
- We should expect that the poorest half of the world wants the same standard of living as the richest half
- The standard of living of the richest half is unsubstainable
- Therefore the richest countries must bear the burden of the climate crisis
- They are ones who caused the current crisis
- They are worst offenders in escalating the crisis
- They are setting unsustainable standards
What we can do
Calculate our own carbon footprint so that we can see how big our personal problem is.
Some ideas, roughly easiest first:
- Switch off stuff that's not in use. It's as easy as pulling a plug.
- Switch to a 100% green energy supplier. You know you get ripped off if you don't change every few years, so change now and it's likely to save you money as well.
- Plant a few trees. Growing trees is fun and there are many good tree planting organisations like Trees for Life, The National Forest and Carbon Footprint.
- Eliminate personal food waste - if you've chosen to spend the CO2 to get it to your house then eat it
- Better insulate your house. Old loft insulation or replacing drafty windows with double glazing can be quick wins, but there's only so much that is practical.
- Walk or cycle to work if you can. Even a small amount of exercise every day improves life expectancy
- Turn down the thermostat. Jumpers and thermals work well in winter.
- Avoid food that needed aeroplanes to get it to you (stuff that's come from a long way away with a short expiry date - if anyone has a list let me know)
- Eat near-vegan or semi-vegetarian. This is not about being kind to animals, so kill them in moderation if that makes you feel good, it's about our survival. Watch Cowspiracy
- Reduce fuel usage - e.g. car and especially non-essential plane flights, such as holidays
- Talk about the problem. Whether with friends, family or at work, the biggest danger is inaction.
- Join the Green Party, Extinction Rebellion or whatever you feel comfortable with.
- Campain for aviation fuel tax, E10 fuel for cars, a general carbon tax on everything.
- Spend some time rewilding, e.g. at Trees for Life
- Spend/consume less. Like a lot less. If you spend only half your disposable income you'll be able to retire much much earlier! (e.g. Mr Money Mustache and FIRE)
- Set a personal target of (say) two tonnes CO2e/year and offset much more than your emissions (we've got to recover some how)
Other similar lists have been compiled and are well worth reading:
On a governmental/global level these are worth reading:
To end, here is a big question: Is global warming and individual or institutional responsibility?
- Individual: It's up to every individual to consume very much less and eat a near-vegan diet - we can do this now and so we only have ourselves to blame.
- Institutional: We'd be fine consuming at the level we do if only our governments invested in green energy, our companies worked on the tech fixes and capitalism wasn't broken.
To do - add in a section on tipping points
And a section on national policy
- Cat documents