Idea, a simple web site where you can put in your choices and see how things might play out.
Choices in, risk of catastophe out.
Some model answers:
|When should we adopt a plant based diet?||Immediately and with price pressure||Yes, in the next 10 years||Yes, in next 20 years|
|When should we switch to electric cars?||A forced switch in 2024||At next purchase||All new cars after 2025 electic|
|How much flying?||Only for emegencies||One European trip/year||One long haul flight/year|
|As a wealthy nation, should we lead?||Yes||Maybe||No|
|Risk of catastophe|
We assume a linear decrease in emissions from 2020 to the end date. A slightly faster start and slower end is more realistic, but ill defined and the differences are only small. The simple linear decrease allows for much easier comparison with the work of others and therefore faster learning.
ONS has detailed expenditure by category and income decile.
For each category we can model an income elasticity of demand.
Each category can be given a carbon footprint and the assocoated carbon tax calculated. Use the low deciles to compute the universal income needed for no change.
One shot seems much cleaner.
Things break when:
use Income elasticity of demand - mmeasure as a quadratic, guess minima, repeat.
– old below –
Question: How to estimate the elasticity of the first two? Answer - assume elasticity of 1 - if price goes up by a factor of x then consumption goes down by x (e.g. 3x higher price, 1/3 consumption). Make this a varaible so can get zeroth level and first level from same spreadsheet.
Some stuff costs the same money however much you spend - e.g. milk, butter, margerine, electricity - the basics. With increasing wealth you don't consume more or buy more expensive versions. Some suff is the opposite, e.g. wine, with increasing wealthy you spend more (whether it's more expensive or consume more we don't know). But we can't tell if an item is optional or necessity. Can fit a (second order) polynomial to amount spent on an item vs the income. Then do gradient descent. So if all basics prices go up then assume people will buy roughly the same amount even though it costs more. But if can save on luxuries (say wine) then will do so.